US Tariffs Drive Africa Towards China: An Opportunity or a Risk for the Continent?

The United States’ introduction of tariffs has prompted a shift in Africa’s trading landscape, with several African nations facing steep export charges. This situation could potentially benefit China, which has historically pursued relationships with African countries and is now offering aid to mitigate the impact of US tariffs.

“We are moving increasingly closer to China,” commented Nigerian economist Bismarck Rewane. He views this trend as a regrettable outcome, given that China has emerged as Africa’s largest bilateral trading partner in recent years.

Four African countries – Libya, South Africa, Algeria, and Tunisia – face tariffs ranging from 25% to 30%. Eighteen other nations have been subjected to 15% levies, according to a modified tariff package released by the White House.

When US import duties were first announced in April, President Trump characterized them as reciprocal and aimed at countries with trade deficits with the US. However, the tariffs are based on each country’s trade deficit with the United States, rather than their own tariff rates.

South Africa, a significant player on the continent, challenged the imposition of a 30% tariff on its exports to the US, asserting that Trump’s decision was not grounded in accurate trade data.

In June, China announced it would waive charges on imports from nearly all African partners, aiming to soften the impact of US tariffs. Neo Letswalo, a South African researcher, sees this as an opportunity for Africa to strengthen South-South trade among developing nations and encourages countries to turn to China.

“America is gradually losing its global leadership status,” Letswalo stated, adding that increased dependence on China presents opportunities for it to become an alternative.

Before the tariff deadline, no trade deal was reached between the US and any African nation, highlighting Africa’s lower priority on the White House’s agenda. Lesotho, one of the countries hit with a 15% tariff, had previously faced a 50% rate but saw the charges reduced in a modified plan.

The Prime Minister of Lesotho, Samuel Matekane, stated that these high tariffs, combined with the suspension of US aid to the nation of over 2 million people, have crippled industries and led to massive job losses.

Trump has portrayed Lesotho, a landlocked country surrounded by South Africa, as an obscure nation, despite trade between the two nations reaching over $240 million last year, primarily in textiles.

Before the tariffs, Lesotho benefited from a US trade agreement that allowed duty-free exports to the US. Authorities in Lesotho have declared a state of national disaster due to the tariffs and braced for their impact, with the textile industry facing significant job losses.

Thousands of jobs are also at risk in South Africa’s citrus sector ahead of the August 1 tariff deadline. The Citrus Growers’ Association (CGA) has warned that job losses will be inevitable if the tariffs are implemented, as hundreds of thousands of cartons of citrus ready for export to the US may go unsold.

Other industries in South Africa, such as automobiles, also face the risk of economic shocks, analysts say. Gwede Mantashe, South Africa’s minister of mineral and petroleum resources, stated that alternatives are being sought for South African goods if the US imposes high tariffs.

While South Africa explores broader opportunities, the citrus growers’ group has expressed reservations about relying on China as an alternative market. Its CEO, Boitshoko Ntshabele, believes improving access to both the US and Chinese markets is essential.

Letswalo acknowledges potential risks in replacing the US with China but emphasizes that African countries must seek domestic alternatives and expedite the implementation of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA). Established in 2020, only over 20 out of Africa’s 55 nations have traded under AfCFTA so far.

Rewane argues that the US tariffs could encourage Africa to build economic resilience and decrease dependence on imbalanced trade. Above all, he stresses the importance of being more self-reliant rather than overly dependent on external markets.