OPEC+ Increases Oil Production by 547,000 Barrels Per Day in Bid to Regain Market Share Amid Geopolitical Tensions with Russia

OPEC+ has agreed to increase oil production by 547,000 barrels per day in September, marking the latest in a series of accelerated output hikes aimed at recouping market share amid growing concerns over potential supply disruptions linked to Russia.

The decision represents a full and early reversal of OPEC+’s largest tranche of output cuts, along with an additional increase for the United Arab Emirates amounting to approximately 2.5 million barrels per day. This increase equates to around 2.4% of global demand.

Following a brief virtual meeting, eight OPEC+ member countries reached this agreement amid increasing pressure from the U.S. on India to halt Russian oil purchases. The move is part of ongoing efforts by Washington to negotiate a peace deal with Russia and Ukraine, with President Donald Trump expressing a desire for an agreement by August 8.

In a statement following the meeting, OPEC+ cited a robust economy and low stocks as the rationale behind its decision. Despite increased production, oil prices have remained elevated, with Brent crude LCOc1 closing near $70 a barrel on Friday – up from a 2025 low of near $58 in April. The rise in price is partly attributed to seasonal demand.

Amrita Sen, co-founder of Energy Aspects, noted that the market structure indicates tight stocks. “Given fairly strong oil prices at around $70, it does give OPEC+ some confidence about market fundamentals,” she said.

The eight countries are scheduled to meet again on September 7, where they may consider reinstating an additional layer of output cuts totaling approximately 1.65 million barrels per day. These cuts are currently in place until the end of next year.

OPEC+ comprises ten non-OPEC oil-producing countries, including Russia and Kazakhstan. The group, which produces roughly half of the world’s oil, has been curtailing production for several years to support oil prices. However, this year, it reversed course in an effort to regain market share, partly spurred by calls from Trump for OPEC to boost production.

The eight began raising output in April with a modest increase of 138,000 barrels per day, followed by larger-than-planned hikes of 411,000 barrels per day in May, June, and July, 548,000 barrels per day in August, and now 547,000 barrels per day for September.

Giovanni Staunovo of UBS commented that the market has absorbed these additional barrels well, partly due to stockpiling activity in China. “All eyes will now shift on the Trump decision on Russia this Friday,” he said.

In addition to the voluntary cut of about 1.65 million barrels per day from the eight members, OPEC+ still has a 2-million-barrel-per-day cut across all members, which expires at the end of 2026.

Jorge Leon of Rystad Energy and a former OPEC official stated, “OPEC+ has passed the first test,” as it has fully reversed its largest cut without causing a price crash. However, he noted that the next challenge will be more difficult: deciding whether and when to unwind the remaining 1.66 million barrels, all while navigating geopolitical tensions and preserving unity.