Trump Faces Skepticism and Concern Over Understanding Putin Ahead of Russia-Ukraine Summit

In recent months, President Donald Trump has shown growing frustration towards Russian President Vladimir Putin as they prepare for a summit to discuss Russia’s years-long invasion of Ukraine. Despite initial promises to swiftly broker a peace deal, Putin has resisted ceasefire proposals and intensified attacks on Ukraine this year.

While some within the White House have expressed optimism that an agreement can be reached due to potential shifts in Putin’s short-term objectives, the US intelligence community remains skeptical. According to multiple sources familiar with recent US intelligence reporting on Russia, Putin maintains his maximalist territorial goals and would likely use a ceasefire as an opportunity to regroup and potentially launch another offensive towards Kyiv.

Moreover, Putin continues to resist Ukraine joining NATO and foreign peacekeepers entering its territory. One source described Putin’s thinking as believing that he is winning and has no reason to compromise.

European leaders are concerned about the White House being influenced by the Kremlin, with one European official stating that Russia is offering to stop the war only if it gets everything it wants, including maximalist demands, which would amount to a submission rather than a deal.

However, some Europeans believe that Trump may have a unique ability to strike an agreement, and they are encouraged by his shifting policy on the war in recent months. On Wednesday, Trump warned Russia of “very severe consequences” if Putin does not show seriousness about ending the war with Ukraine, though he did not specify what those consequences might be.

Discerning Putin’s intentions has historically been difficult due to his tight-knit circle of confidants and unclear advisors. US spy agencies have a poor view of Putin’s day-to-day decision-making, as the Kremlin remains a “hard target” for traditional espionage.

Despite these challenges, the US has at times successfully gained insight into Putin’s plans, such as his decision to invade Ukraine in 2022. However, it is unclear how much Trump will rely on intelligence reports going into Friday’s summit. Some officials question whether Trump’s briefers are laying out the hard truths of the situation, including the widely-held view that Putin believes it’s in his best interest to continue the war.

Trump remains confident that he can personally assess Putin quickly, claiming that he will know within the first two minutes of their meeting if an agreement can be reached to end the war. However, others have noticed a change in Trump’s thinking about Putin, with some European allies stating that it is Trump who has changed, both in his comfort level and understanding of who Putin is.

Trump’s growing anger towards Putin began earlier this summer, coming as Special Envoy Steve Witkoff, Trump’s primary interlocutor with Russia, was also expressing frustration with the Kremlin. Witkoff privately commented that the Russians were “tapping us along,” and Trump has been using more expletives when discussing Putin in private meetings.

As the war enters its fourth year, Putin’s determination to conquer Ukraine has arguably only intensified, making him an even more challenging interlocutor to come to an agreement with than in the past. Analysts warn that Europeans are increasingly concerned about Trump getting lured into a deal that rewards Russia for the invasion.