Centrist Rodrigo Paz Emerges as Bolivia’s Surprise Presidential Frontrunner in Historic Vote, Challenging Left-Wing Dominance After Two Decades

In the heart of South America, Bolivia is on the brink of political change after a pivotal election that saw the end of two decades of left-wing rule and signaled voter apprehension towards a drastic shift to the right.

Centrist Senator Rodrigo Paz emerged as the unexpected frontrunner, garnering more votes than his conservative counterparts, albeit not enough for an outright victory. The results indicate that Paz will face former President Jorge “Tuto” Quiroga in a historic runoff slated for October 19, marking Bolivia’s first presidential election since its return to democracy in 1982.

Addressing jubilant crowds, Paz declared, “Bolivia first and foremost,” emphasizing the need for economic reform. With over 91% of the votes counted, Paz secured 32.8%, while Quiroga earned 26.4%. A candidate needed to surpass 50% or 40% with a 10-point lead to avoid a runoff.

Quiroga, surrounded by family and supporters, congratulated Paz on his lead, stating, “Tonight is a historic moment for Bolivia.”

The electoral outcome dealt a significant blow to the ruling Movement Toward Socialism (MAS) party, which has governed Bolivia almost continuously since Evo Morales, its charismatic founder and ex-President, rose to power as part of the leftist wave that swept into office across Latin America during the early 2000s commodities boom.

The official MAS candidate, Eduardo del Castillo, finished sixth with a mere 3.2% of the vote. The other leftist contender seen as the party’s best hope, Senate president Andrónico Rodríguez, captured 8%.

During his nearly 14-year tenure, Morales championed the rights of Bolivia’s Indigenous majority, defended coca growers against U.S.-backed eradication programs, and invested natural gas profits into social programs and infrastructure. However, his increasingly autocratic attempts to extend his presidency and allegations of sexual misconduct with minors eroded public support.

As the country’s once-stable economy crumbled under Morales’ protégé-turned-rival, President Luis Arce, Bolivians grew disillusioned with the MAS party. Annual inflation soared from less than 2% two years ago to over 16%, fuel scarcity paralyzed the country, and a desperate shortage of U.S. dollars for essential imports like wheat crippled the economy.

As the crisis deepened, MAS leaders traded blame, eventually leading to a power struggle that ultimately fractured the party and opened the door for opposition victory, despite its lackluster candidates’ inability to unite.

The election of Paz came as a surprise to a nation conditioned by weeks of polls to expect the leading conservative contenders, Quiroga and businessman Samuel Doria Medina, to capture the top two spots. This unexpected victory can be attributed to Bolivians’ ambivalence about an abrupt rightward shift.

Paz has distanced himself from proposals by Quiroga and Doria Medina to sell Bolivia’s abundant lithium reserves to foreign companies and seek billions of dollars in loans from the International Monetary Fund (IMF). However, he has also launched fierce attacks on the MAS party and its state-controlled economic policies.

“The people have spoken,” Paz said. “They want change.” Despite their grand promises for drastic change, Doria Medina and Quiroga failed to generate excitement among Bolivian voters, as they are associated with U.S.-backed neoliberal administrations that Morales denounced upon taking office in 2006.

Now, after two decades of Morales’ populist, state-directed economic policies, Bolivia appears poised for a return to austerity measures. After years of alignment with world powers like China and Russia, Bolivia seems set to reestablish ties with the United States.

Supporters of Paz view him as a fresh face bringing new ideas. However, he also has deep roots in Bolivia’s political establishment. The 57-year-old lawmaker is the son of former President Jaime Paz Zamora, who began his career as a committed leftist and co-founded the Revolutionary Left Movement. He and his colleagues were persecuted under the military dictatorship of Hugo Banzer in the 1970s. Paz was born in exile in Spain during Banzer’s dictatorship.

In a remarkable turn, Paz Zamora later struck a deal with Banzer’s right-wing party and served as president from 1989 to 1993. Doria Medina served as his minister of planning.