Donbas Remains Crux of Putin’s Ambitions in Ukraine: Protecting Territory Becomes Political and Strategic Imperative for Zelensky

In the ongoing negotiations to bring an end to the conflict in Ukraine, a significant focus has been placed on the eastern regions, particularly Donbas, which holds strategic importance for Russia. This region, consisting of Donetsk and Luhansk, was once a key industrial hub during the Soviet era, characterized by coal mines and steel mills.

Beyond its industrial significance, Donbas also boasts fertile farmlands, important rivers, and a coastline on the Sea of Azov. Historically, it was the most “Russian” part of Ukraine, with a substantial Russian-speaking population, and in past years showed little affection for the central government in Kyiv.

In 2014, following the annexation of Crimea by Russia, Putin initiated efforts to destabilize Ukraine within Donbas. Pro-Russian militia, some equipped with tanks, appeared across the region, swiftly capturing the cities of Luhansk and Donetsk from a poorly prepared and demotivated Ukrainian military.

Since then, these breakaway enclaves have witnessed intense combat between Russian-backed separatists and Ukrainian forces, resulting in over 14,000 fatalities as per Ukrainian records. Over 1.5 million residents have fled Donbas since 2014, with more than three million estimated to be living under Russian control. Moscow has distributed hundreds of thousands of Russian passports to individuals residing in the separatist-controlled areas of Donbas.

However, Putin’s ambitions extended beyond control over these territories. Prior to the full-scale Russian invasion in February 2022, he asserted that the so-called civilized world was ignoring the suffering of nearly four million people subjected to “horror” and “genocide.” He subsequently recognized Luhansk and Donetsk as independent states.

Later in the year, Moscow unilaterally and illegally annexed both regions, along with the southern areas of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson, despite only partially occupying them. The Kremlin views these territories differently from those Russia withdrew from in 2022, especially for a leader like Putin who is fixated on a “greater Russia.”

Analysts suggest that Russian forces would need several years to complete the occupation of these annexed territories. Conversely, Ukraine has little chance of recovering much of what it has already lost – almost all of Luhansk and over 70% of Donetsk.

Kyiv still holds a strategic “fortress belt” comprising industrial cities, railways, and roads that serve as a significant obstacle to Putin’s forces, including Sloviansk, Kramatorsk, and Kostiantynivka. For Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to cede the rest of Donetsk would be politically disastrous, as three-quarters of Ukrainians oppose any land concessions to Russia.

Retreating from the remainder of Donetsk would also leave vast open plains in central Ukraine exposed to potential future Russian offenses, as Zelensky has consistently warned, and would be an unconstitutional surrender of Ukrainian territory.

Such a withdrawal would also contradict a fundamental principle for Zelensky’s European allies: that aggression should not be rewarded with territory, and Ukrainian sovereignty must be protected.

As in 2014, Donbas remains the epicenter of Putin’s aspirations in Ukraine and poses the greatest challenge for Europe as it strives to uphold a rules-based international order.