Texas GOP Crafts Controversial Congressional Map Favoring Red Districts, Targeting Democratic Strongholds

Texas GOP poised to enact redistricting plan that could solidify Republican control of 30 districts, including all those where the party aims for double-digit victories.

The proposed map, if implemented, would strategically reshape five Democratic-held districts by trimming blue areas and transferring them to safer seats, while adding more conservative territories in their place.

If the Republican Party maintains its 2024 performance, mirroring President Trump’s nearly 14-point victory margin, the new map could significantly bolster GOP representation. However, a future election resembling the 2020 results, with Trump’s margin shrinking to less than half, might make these districts more competitive.

Here’s an overview of the five targeted districts and their proposed changes:

District 9 in Houston would undergo a significant transformation, shifting from a Democratic stronghold based in southern Houston to a Republican district that extends from eastern Harris County into neighboring Liberty County. Current Rep. Al Green may opt to run in the newly configured 18th District instead, left vacant by the passing of Rep. Sylvester Turner earlier this year. The revised 18th would assimilate much of Green’s current constituency and become even more Democratic under the proposed map.

The Republican proposal would merge parts of Rep. Julie Johnson’s Dallas-area 32nd District with Democratic Rep. Marc Veasey’s adjacent 33rd, while relocating other Democratic areas to heavily Republican seats. The reconfigured 32nd would then expand eastwards into the predominantly Republican counties of Rockwall, Hunt, Rains, Wood, Camp, and Upshur.

The new redistricting plan proposes to dismantle Rep. Greg Casar’s Austin-to-San Antonio 35th District as it currently stands. The revised 35th would incorporate some Democratic sections of San Antonio but also extend into more Republican territories in Guadalupe, Karnes, and Wilson counties. A significant portion of the Austin sector would be absorbed into Democratic Rep. Lloyd Doggett’s 37th District.

Doggett has announced that he will not seek reelection in the 37th if the courts uphold the map. This decision could avert the anticipated tough primary contest between Doggett and Casar, who was first elected in 2022.

Among the five targeted seats, District 28 would see the least partisan shift. The current district, which Trump won by seven points last year despite Democratic Rep. Henry Cuellar securing his 11th term, is only slightly modified to increase Trump’s margin to double digits. The new map removes some Democratic areas in San Antonio while incorporating more Republicans, particularly in Live Oak, La Salle, and Maverick Counties. The district also gains a portion of Hidalgo County along the Mexican border, which Trump carried more narrowly.

Cuellar managed to win by just under six points in 2024, so he might still have a chance to maintain his seat, even as the district shifts three points more Republican.

Similarly to District 28, Democratic Rep. Vicente Gonzalez holds onto the nearby 34th despite Trump winning it by approximately four percentage points last year. The new map adjusts this margin to double digits by excising a portion of Hidalgo County on the Mexican border, which includes some Democratic strongholds and was won narrowly by Trump, and replacing it with a portion of Nueces County near Corpus Christi, where Trump received 57% of the vote.

Gonzalez would find himself in a challenging position under this redistricting plan, as he won by less than three points in November, and his district will experience a more pronounced shift towards Trump.

Districts 28 and 34 are both Hispanic-majority districts in regions that have swung dramatically to the right in recent years. Even in the 2022 gubernatorial election, the 28th would have voted predominantly Democratic, while Republican Greg Abbott would have barely carried the 34th. This shift towards the right will need to persist if Republicans hope to secure wins in these seats during the 2026 elections.