India-China Relations Thaw Under Trump’s Economic Pressure: Modi to Attend Xi Summit Amid US Tensions and Border Disputes
Amidst escalating economic tensions with the US, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi is set to visit China this week for a summit hosted by President Xi Jinping – marking the first such trip since 2018. This development comes at a time when India and the US are locked in a standoff over potential 50% tariffs imposed on Indian goods, with tensions between New Delhi and Washington escalating under President Trump’s “America First” policies.
The impending summit, scheduled for this weekend, will bring together leaders from Russia, Pakistan, Iran, and Central Asia alongside Xi, as part of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) – a regional security club founded by Moscow and Beijing. India’s presence at the event is indicative of a burgeoning realignment between the two Asian powers, potentially undermining years-long US efforts to cultivate New Delhi as a counterweight against an increasingly assertive China in the Indo-Pacific region.
Although improvements in India and China’s strained relationship were already underway, analysts believe that Trump’s protectionist trade policies have prompted the two leaders – both of whom have built their political identities on a foundation of nationalism – to explore a partnership of necessity. The threatened US tariffs on Indian oil purchases from Russia, particularly hard-hitting for Modi who enjoyed a cordial rapport with Trump during his first term, have reportedly infused a sense of urgency in New Delhi’s efforts to stabilize its relationship with Beijing.
Despite the upcoming summit, analysts remain skeptical about the prospect of a fundamental realignment between India and China. Manoj Kewalramani, head of Indo-Pacific studies at the Takshashila Institution research center in Bengaluru, explains that “the United States remains (India’s) most important partner in the world,” but acknowledges that “China is our largest neighbor.” As a result, India finds it necessary to balance its ties with both countries.
The trajectory of India-China relations has seen an evolution from post-colonial brotherhood to modern-day strategic rivalry. While the two nations established diplomatic relations in 1950 and shared a vision of Asian solidarity, their relationship was shattered by the 1962 Sino-Indian War. This brief but brutal conflict resulted in deep mistrust and an unresolved border dispute that remains a festering wound in the relationship.
In the decades that followed, the countries’ leaders attempted to build economic ties despite ongoing tensions at their shared border. However, the deadly 2020 Galwan Valley clashes – which resulted in fatalities on both sides – significantly disrupted this balance. Recent improvements in the relationship have been noted following meetings between Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi and Prime Minister Modi in New Delhi last week, with both sides expressing a desire to maintain peace and stability.
India’s diplomatic and economic recalibration towards China can be seen as a manifestation of its policy of strategic autonomy, which prioritizes national interests over rigid bloc allegiance. This shift is evident in India’s engagement with a China-dominated bloc like the SCO, despite deepening ties with the US-led Quad security grouping.
The successful management of this delicate dance between India and China will be crucial for shaping the future of their relationship. As Farwa Aamer, director of South Asia Initiatives at the Asia Society Policy Institute, notes, “perhaps a more stable relationship, where competition isn’t necessarily over, but conflict is at bay,” may emerge in the near future. The key will be whether the leaders can translate their rhetoric into de-escalation on the ground – something that has proved elusive in the past.