Xi Jinping and Narendra Modi Hold Historic Meeting Amid US-China Tensions and the War in Ukraine

Leaders of China and India met on Sunday at a regional summit in Tianjin, marking a significant milestone in their relationship. Chinese President Xi Jinping welcomed Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi for his first visit to China in seven years. The meeting comes amidst shared tensions with the United States and ongoing conflicts, particularly the war in Ukraine.

The leaders’ encounter took place at the Tianjin Guest House following a handshake and photo opportunity. Both nations currently face US tariffs and scrutiny regarding their relationships with Russia.

Modi expressed gratitude for Xi’s invitation, highlighting an agreement reached between special representatives from both countries concerning border management – a reference to ongoing disputes at their shared border that escalated after a fatal skirmish in 2020. Modi also emphasized India’s commitment to strengthening relations based on mutual trust and respect.

The meeting is particularly significant as it takes place during the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), a regional security group backed by China and Russia. The Indian leader’s attendance and the meeting with Xi signify improving ties between Beijing and New Delhi, which have been easing tensions – a development of increasing value to India following recent strains in US-India relations.

During his visit, Modi will also meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin for bilateral talks on Monday. This discussion comes after new US tariffs on Indian exports related to purchases of Russian oil, seen as funding Putin’s war in Ukraine. Both China and India are major buyers of Russian oil.

The ongoing conflict in Ukraine is expected to loom large over the SCO gathering and associated diplomatic activities, given the escalating international pressure on Putin to end the invasion now in its fourth year.

US President Donald Trump recently imposed significant economic sanctions on India, initially imposing 25% tariffs on Indian imports and subsequently adding an additional 25% duty for importing Russian oil and gas.

These tensions threaten decades of US efforts to drive a wedge between New Delhi and Moscow and more recent attempts to cultivate India as a key counterweight in Asia against a rising and increasingly assertive China.

India has maintained a neutral stance on the Ukraine conflict, with Modi reporting discussions with Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelensky regarding the ongoing conflict.

This year’s SCO gathering is expected to be the largest to date, with over 20 leaders in attendance, including those from SCO member countries such as Iran, Pakistan, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan.

China has expressed satisfaction with the reduction of tensions between Trump and Modi, which may have reduced burgeoning security ties between the two partners. Chinese officials have also watched with concern the growing Quad security dialogue between India, the US, Australia, and Japan – a group often seen as countering China’s influence.

Since their meeting at the BRICS summit in Russia last October, there has been a gradual normalization of ties between India and China. In recent months, both nations have resumed direct flights suspended due to the pandemic, reopened pilgrimage sites in western Tibet for Indian visitors after a five-year hiatus, and started issuing tourist visas again.

Following a visit from Chinese top diplomat Wang Yi to New Delhi earlier this month, the two nations announced “ten points of consensus” to further reduce tensions. However, observers note that overcoming deep-seated mistrust between Xi and Modi will be challenging, given underlying tensions between India and China that reached a peak in 2020 following a deadly conflict along their disputed Himalayan border.

Both countries maintain a significant military presence along their 2,100-mile (3,379-kilometer) undefinable border, known as the Line of Actual Control (LAC), which has been a persistent source of friction since their 1962 war.

Since joining the SCO in 2017, India’s membership has been viewed by some observers as an uneasy fit in a club that includes autocrats and aims to counter a US-led world order – a goal at odds with New Delhi’s more non-aligned foreign policy. Additionally, India is a member alongside its rival Pakistan, making the Tianjin summit the first meeting between Modi and Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif since their recent conflict.

The summit also provides Modi an opportunity to engage with long-term partner Putin amidst pressure from American tariffs on Indian oil purchases.