Brazil’s Former President Jair Bolsonaro Convicted of Attempted Coup and Criminal Conspiracy

In Brazil, the nation’s Supreme Court has reached a majority decision to convict former President Jair Bolsonaro on charges of coup attempt and criminal conspiracy. Out of the five justices on the panel, three have voted guilty, marking a historical milestone as it is the first time a former Brazilian head of state stands trial for attempting to overthrow the government.

The upcoming verdict carries significant implications. Bolsonaro, a 70-year-old political figure known for his far-right ideologies and close ties with former U.S. President Donald Trump, governed Brazil from 2019 to 2022. He now faces accusations of plotting a coup, attempting to overthrow the democratic order, participating in an armed criminal group, and inciting riots in Brasília on January 8, 2023.

The trial proceedings will continue through Friday, with the final vote and sentence announcement expected then. Given the majority decision, it appears likely that Bolsonaro and his co-defendants—which include three former generals and the former head of the navy—will be convicted. Conviction could result in prison sentences of up to 40 years.

Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes, who is leading the case, delivered a guilty verdict on Tuesday following nearly five hours of evidence and argument presentation. Moraes has long been considered a foe by Bolsonaro, and his handling of the trial and broader disinformation crackdown in Brazil has drawn criticism from the former president’s allies.

In his ruling, Moraes accused Bolsonaro of orchestrating efforts to undermine democracy, claiming that the former president began preparing for a coup in 2021 by spreading disinformation about Brazil’s voting system and encouraging actions leading to the January 8, 2023 riots in Brasília.

Moraes presented “overwhelming evidence” of a plot by elite army personnel to assassinate then-President-elect Lula and Moraes himself, highlighting a document—codenamed Operation Green and Yellow Dagger—which outlined part of the plan: poisoning Lula and shooting Moraes. This document was reportedly discovered within Brazil’s government headquarters during Bolsonaro’s tenure.

While Moraes and two other justices have advocated for convictions on all charges against the former president, Justice Luiz Fux has pushed for his acquittal on all five counts. Fux took 13 hours to read his dissent, arguing that the case should be heard by the full 11-member Supreme Court, a potential strategy that could be used by Bolsonaro’s defense team in appealing the final verdict.

Bolsonaro has consistently denied the allegations. His lawyer, Celso Villardi, maintains there is no evidence linking him to a coup plot. Final sessions to debate sentencing are scheduled for Friday, and if convicted, Bolsonaro’s lawyers have stated that they will appeal the verdict. The other defendants also deny the charges.

The case has strained Brazil-U.S. relations. Trump, a strong Bolsonaro ally, labeled the trial as a “witch hunt” when his administration imposed 50% tariffs on Brazilian goods in August. White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt refrained from discussing potential further sanctions but emphasized that the issue remains a priority for the U.S. administration.

Before becoming Brazil’s first far-right president since the end of the military dictatorship in 1985, Bolsonaro served as an army captain. He rapidly rose to power from congressman to president in 2019 and survived an assassination attempt in 2018.

During his presidency, particularly during his handling of the COVID-19 pandemic, Bolsonaro built a fiercely loyal base as a divisive figure, earning the nickname “the Trump of the Tropics.” Known for championing gun rights, traditional family values, and an anti-gay stance, he wielded social media with unfiltered bravado.

Since leaving office, Bolsonaro has faced multiple legal challenges, including abuse of power and falsifying COVID vaccination records. In 2023, he was barred from public office until 2030 for spreading disinformation about Brazil’s voting system.

Despite these setbacks, Bolsonaro remains a potent force. He won 49% of the vote in the 2022 election and continues to draw tens of thousands to the streets in his defense. With Bolsonaro sidelined, his allies are now vying for his political legacy ahead of next year’s elections, betting that his influence will shape Brazil’s political future.

For Brazil, this trial represents a reckoning. The country has faced repeated coup attempts, including the 1964 takeover that ushered in two decades of military rule. Now, its Supreme Court is moving to hold a former president accountable for allegedly trying to undermine democracy and steer the country back toward authoritarian rule.