Unraveling the BLS Job Report: President Trump’s Allegations of Manipulation Unfounded, Says Former Commissioner

The recent employment report sparked controversy as President Trump asserted without evidence that it was manipulated to harm his administration’s reputation. He took aim at Dr. Erika McEntarfer, commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), accusing her of fabricating figures in a personal vendetta against his presidency.

Trump posted on Truth Social on Friday, stating, “I believe today’s jobs report was intentionally rigged to make the Republican party and me look bad.” As a result, he dismissed McEntarfer from her position. On Sunday, Trump erroneously claimed that she had overseen the biggest miscalculations in the BLS’s history. However, the revisions made to recent jobs reports were neither extraordinary nor indicative of corruption.

Established in 1884, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) operates independently within the U.S. Department of Labor. While the Labor Secretary, a member of the president’s cabinet, maintains oversight, the BLS is managed by a commissioner appointed by the Senate.

The BLS collects critical data on various key economic indicators including prices, inflation, productivity, spending, pay, workplace injuries, employment, and unemployment. Over 2,000 individuals work for the BLS, including professional economists and survey takers who regularly contact businesses and employees. These professionals analyze the data and prepare reports for public consumption and government use.

The BLS collects employment data through two separate surveys: a household survey that involves door-to-door interviews to gather information on individuals’ employment status and demographics, and the Current Employment Statistics (CES) survey conducted via telephone, internet surveys, or automated data transfer from large corporations. Participation in the CES survey is voluntary except in New Mexico, Oregon, South Carolina, Puerto Rico, where it is mandatory by state law.

The CES survey respondents submit monthly employment, hours, and earnings data for all paid workers to the BLS from their payroll records. The data collection is based on the pay period that includes the 12th of the month. After editing the data to remove processing and reporting errors, BLS staff estimate America’s employment, hours worked, and earnings for a monthly report. To extrapolate the data nationwide, they make educated guesses based on seasonal hiring trends and apply seasonal adjustments to account for fluctuations in data each month.

The raw data and estimates are protected by statistical tests, preventing individuals from accessing specific employer data. On the first Friday of every month, the BLS releases its Employment Situation Summary, commonly known as the monthly US jobs report. The report combines data from both surveys: demographic information and unemployment rates from the household survey, and pay, hours worked, and job totals from the CES survey.

In addition to the current month’s employment figures, the report revises up or down the previous two months’ jobs totals. The July report included revisions for May and June that were historically large but not unprecedented. May’s jobs total was revised lower by 120,000 jobs from an initial estimate of 139,000, while the US economy only added 14,000 jobs in June (a revision of 133,000 jobs) compared to a preliminary estimate of 147,000.

The BLS tracks monthly revisions dating back to 1979 and introduced a new probability-based sample design for revisions in 2003. Between 1979 and 2003, the average monthly revision was 61,000 jobs. Since 2003, the average monthly revision is only slightly more accurate at 51,000 jobs.

Larger revisions have occurred in both pre-pandemic and pandemic times. For example, a 679,000-job revision in March 2020 was due to particularly poor survey responses during a nationwide lockdown. There were also bigger revisions outside of the pandemic, such as a 143,000-job revision in January 2009.

Trump has previously criticized an annual preliminary revision issued in August 2024 that showed the U.S. economy had added 818,000 fewer jobs over the previous year than initially reported. He incorrectly referred to this revision as a record on Friday. A 902,000-job revision in 2009 was actually larger. The final annual revision issued in February showed that the 2024 data was overestimated by 589,000 jobs due to information received from US tax returns.

Trump also correctly noted on Friday that the BLS had revised down initial jobs totals for August and September 2024 by a combined 112,000 positions before the 2020 presidential election. However, this revision was not unusual as larger revisions occurred earlier in the year and in previous years. October’s employment figures, reported just days before the election, marked the worst monthly jobs performance since the pandemic began.

Businesses and government organizations rely on BLS data for decision-making regarding investment, pay, and hiring. The Federal Reserve, in particular, relies on the BLS data to guide its monetary policy and interest rate decisions. In a press conference last week, Fed Chair Jerome Powell emphasized the importance of accurate economic data: “Good data helps not just the Fed, it helps the government, but also helps the private sector… It’s very hard to accurately capture in real time the output of a $20-plus trillion economy.”

In June, Powell expressed concern about the trajectory of weaker data. The BLS notes that its survey data is used by the National Bureau of Economic Research to determine whether or not the economy is in a recession and helps produce several other reports on jobs and the economy throughout the year.

Alternatives to BLS data are limited. Payroll processing company ADP produces a monthly private payrolls report that fails to capture government hiring and often contradicts the BLS report, making it largely ignored by economists. Other surveys, such as the layoffs report from outsourcing and placement services firm Challenger, Gray and Christmas, offer some insight but are less comprehensive than the BLS report.

The BLS report has its challenges too, such as the volatility of the household survey due to its smaller sample size and declining response rates. However, the business and government employment survey is generally considered by economists to be the gold standard. Former Commissioner for the Bureau of Labor Statistics William Beach told CNN’s “State of the Union” that the BLS is “the finest statistical agency in the entire world,” with numbers trusted globally. He expressed concern about Trump’s attacks on the commissioner and the bureau, stating they could potentially undermine trust in the agency over the long term.