Trump’s Envoy Heads to Moscow Amidst Escalating Tensions Over Ukraine War and Potential Sanctions

Steve Witkoff, a key foreign envoy for President Donald Trump, arrived in Moscow on Wednesday, following a request from the Kremlin for a meeting aimed at averting new sanctions that Trump has threatened to impose this week. According to sources familiar with the matter, Witkoff was met at the airport by Kirill Dmitriev, Russia’s investment envoy, and is expected to meet with various Russian officials during his visit, including possible discussions with President Vladimir Putin.

As Russia continues its ongoing conflict in Ukraine, it remains uncertain if Putin can persuade Witkoff, and thus Trump, to end the war. Trump has expressed doubts about Putin’s willingness to cease hostilities and seems cautious about engaging with a leader he now distrusts.

Putin, on the other hand, maintains his ambitious goals for the conflict, including capturing Ukrainian regions such as Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson, while demanding that Ukraine limit its military size.

The following day before Witkoff’s meeting, Trump spoke by phone with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky about potential sanctions against Moscow. In a social media post, Zelensky stated these sanctions could significantly impact Russia’s economy. They also discussed the increase in American weapons support to Ukraine, which Trump approved last month and is funded by NATO allies.

Trump has grown increasingly impatient with Russia’s resistance to his peace efforts, labeling air attacks as “disgusting” and accusing Putin of peddling false information during their tense phone conversations. He has set a Friday deadline for Russia to either agree to a peace deal or face new sanctions, including those targeting its own economy and energy product purchasers. Trump shortened his original 50-day timeline due to a lack of movement from Russia, yet he has also questioned the effectiveness of these sanctions following Moscow’s ability to evade numerous Western measures since the war began.

“There’ll be sanctions, but they seem to be pretty good at avoiding sanctions,” Trump said on Sunday. “You know, they’re wily characters, and they’re pretty good at avoiding sanctions. So we’ll see what happens.”

Trump announced last week that he was ordering the repositioning of two US nuclear submarines in response to inflammatory remarks by Dmitry Medvedev, Russia’s former president and current deputy chairman of its security council. However, even Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated after these comments that Medvedev was not a relevant player, and his remarks were unlikely to impact the situation.

Some European officials viewed Trump’s announcement as an attempt to highlight US nuclear capabilities ahead of Witkoff’s visit, sources told CNN. It remains unclear if the US actually repositioned any of its nuclear submarines.

Trump has threatened two distinct types of measures should Moscow not meet the Friday deadline for peace. He has said he’ll apply new sanctions on Russian imports to the US, which would have minimal impact given the near-cessation in trade between the two countries since the start of the war. Trump has also promised “secondary tariffs” on countries that import Russian energy, potentially including China and India, Russia’s largest energy customers. This could potentially cut off funding for Russia’s war machine.

“Is August 8 an actual deadline or part of Trump’s approach, which often involves manufacturing leverage points, and then determining how to use them?” said one US official. “It is not real until Trump decides it is, which is based on a number of unidentified variables.”

There have been active efforts to draft these possible secondary sanctions in recent weeks, US officials stated, adding that they believe Trump’s frustration with Putin is so intense that he might authorize these measures. However, Trump is also likely to back down if Russia makes a substantial offer, sources said.

The US and its western allies have taken numerous steps to restrict Moscow’s energy revenues, including applying a price cap on Russian crude. Yet so far, this has not caused Putin to alter his course. And Russia has been able to evade some of these measures on its energy products by using a “shadow fleet” of tankers with hidden ownership to sell to China and India.

Trump said that could change if the price of Russian oil drops significantly.

“Putin will stop killing people if you get energy down another $10 a barrel. He’s going to have no choice because his economy stinks,” the president said in a Tuesday telephone interview on CNBC.

Russia’s economy has shown recent signs of weakness, including rampant inflation and higher food costs, as the weight of the three-and-a-half year war takes its toll. Trump has already announced he will apply a substantial tariff hike on India for its Russian energy purchases while simultaneously attempting to extract concessions from New Delhi on a trade deal.

“They’re fueling the war machine, and if they’re going to do that, then I’m not going to be happy,” Trump told CNBC.

India has argued its Russian energy purchases have stabilized the global oil market. It remains unclear how committed Trump is to applying new measures on China for its Russian energy purchases. He continues to pursue a comprehensive trade agreement with Beijing, and US officials have described making significant progress in recent talks with their Chinese counterparts. Yet, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent directly informed his Chinese counterparts during trade talks in Stockholm last month that they should be prepared for sanctions if they continue to buy Russian oil.

Putin and China’s President Xi Jinping are expected to meet in Beijing at the start of September around a commemoration ceremony marking the 80th anniversary of the end of World War II. In recent months, Witkoff has played a less active role in Ukraine war talks due to Russia’s refusal to take substantial steps to drive an end to the conflict. During this time, Trump and Special Envoy for Ukraine and Russia Keith Kellogg maintained regular communications with the Ukrainians, with Kellogg visiting Kyiv last month. Trump also began to change his tone on Ukraine, stating it needs the ability to defend itself. However, with Witkoff returning to Russia for the first time in months, there is renewed focus on his role. Early this year, concerns emerged among US officials and Russia experts about Witkoff’s diplomatic inexperience, particularly after he entered multiple early meetings with Putin without a US translator present. After his last meeting with Putin, Witkoff predicted the Russian leader “sees the opportunity for the first time in decades” to recalibrate the US-Russia relationship; however, months later, the war is ongoing, and US-Russia relations have not improved.