Climate Change to Increase Risks for Satellites During Solar Storms by 2084, Study Warns

Increased carbon dioxide emissions are projected to make Earth’s upper atmosphere less dense, posing significant risks for satellite operations during solar-induced geomagnetic storms. This finding was published in the journal Geophysical Research Letters.

As planet-warming carbon dioxide accumulates in the stratosphere, it could lead to reduced air density. Conversely, geomagnetic storms increase the density of the upper atmosphere’s thin layers, potentially causing satellites to slow down and even descend prematurely, shortening their operational lifespans.

This study sheds light on an important concern for the satellite industry due to the growing reliance on satellite networks for various applications, including internet access, navigation, and military purposes.

Geomagnetic storms occur when solar charged particles interact with Earth’s upper atmosphere, causing natural phenomena like auroras. Strong storms can disrupt satellite operations and communication networks, increasing air density in the thin upper layers and making it challenging for satellites to maintain their speed and altitude.

Researchers found that future geomagnetic storms of similar intensity as today will result in more significant spikes in atmospheric density due to Earth’s less dense upper atmosphere overall. Using a supercomputer, they modeled changes across the entirety of Earth’s atmosphere, simulating the impact of varying carbon dioxide concentrations and geomagnetic storm conditions.

Nicholas Pedatella, the lead author from the National Center for Atmospheric Research, explained that a less dense atmosphere would result in reduced drag on satellites, potentially extending their lifespans but also increasing the issue of space debris in low Earth orbit.

Scientists have long known that climate change leads to a decrease in the density of Earth’s upper atmosphere due to lower concentrations of non-ionized particles like oxygen and nitrogen. This is partly because higher carbon dioxide levels affect temperatures in the upper atmosphere, which in turn impacts air density.

However, this study marks an advancement by demonstrating the extent to which atmospheric density could change during powerful geomagnetic storms. As a case study, the researchers analyzed the 2021 geomagnetic storm and its impact on Earth’s atmosphere in different years—2040, 2061, and 2084.

By using a supercomputer capable of simulating the entirety of Earth’s atmosphere, including the thin upper layers, the researchers showed how changes in lower-level composition could alter characteristics at much higher altitudes. They discovered that by the end of this century, the upper atmosphere would be 20% to 50% less dense during a solar storm similar to the 2024 event. This could potentially triple the density change observed today during such events, posing serious risks for critical satellite networks and their effects on ground-level societies.

Pedatella emphasized that future satellite designs must account for these climate change-related impacts, moving away from historical calculations as a basis for engineering decisions. He noted, “You would think, ‘Okay, for this magnitude of (geomagnetic) storm, I would expect this density response.’ But in 30 years from now, that magnitude of storm will have a potentially different magnitude of response.”