Centrist Senator Rodrigo Paz Advances to Bolivian Presidential Runoff Amid Economic Crisis and Political Shift

In an unexpected turn of events, Bolivia is set for a runoff presidential election on October 19th, following Sunday’s vote. Sen. Rodrigo Paz, a centrist candidate who has sought to soften the opposition’s stance on austere economic measures, has emerged as the frontrunner but fell short of an outright victory, according to preliminary results.

Paz, a former mayor, will face off against right-wing contender Jorge “Tuto” Quiroga, who finished second in the elections. With over 91% of ballots counted, Paz received approximately 32.8% of votes, while Quiroga secured around 26.4%. To avoid a runoff, candidates needed to surpass 50% or achieve a 10-point margin with less than 40%.

The outcome deals a significant blow to the Movement Toward Socialism (MAS) party, which has held power for nearly two decades. Founded by former President Evo Morales, a charismatic leader who rose to prominence as part of Latin America’s leftist wave during the early 2000s commodities boom, the MAS failed to secure a majority this time around.

The official MAS candidate, Eduardo del Castillo, finished sixth with just 3.2% of votes, while fellow left-leaning Senate president Andrinico Rodriguez garnered only 8%.

The rise of Paz came as a surprise to a nation that had been anticipating the leading right-wing contenders, Quiroga and multimillionaire businessman Samuel Doria Medina, to clinch the top two spots. This marks Medina’s fourth unsuccessful bid for the presidency; he addressed his disappointed supporters on Sunday with a somber tone, expressing no regrets but acknowledging that serving Bolivia as president was not feasible in this election.

The shift towards a more moderate candidate like Paz may reflect Bolivians’ reluctance to completely abandon the political status quo that Morales dismantled when he took office in 2006, marking an end to two decades of free-market capitalism. Paz has distanced himself from the now-fragmented MAS party and criticized right-wing proposals to sell Bolivia’s abundant lithium reserves to foreign companies and seek loans from the International Monetary Fund.

At stake is the future direction of this landlocked nation of 12 million people, which faces a critical fuel shortage, double-digit inflation, and a scarcity of US dollars.