Iowa Senate Seat Opens: Joni Ernst Retires, Paving Way for Competitive 2026 Race
Iowa Senator Joni Ernst, a Republican, has opted against seeking re-election for a third term, according to two sources familiar with her decision. An official announcement is expected next week.
At 55 years old, Ernst has been contemplating this move for several months and recently informed close associates about it.
Her departure leaves an open Senate seat in Iowa. According to a Republican official, Representative Ashley Hinson is planning to enter the race. National Republicans have long considered Hinson a strong contender, anticipating Ernst’s retirement.
The Democratic party already has a crowded field of candidates vying for the seat. The primary contestants include state Representative Josh Turek, a Paralympic wheelchair basketball player, state Senator Zach Wahls, Nathan Sage, the executive director of the Knoxville Chamber of Commerce, and Jackie Norris, the chair of the Des Moines School Board.
CBS first reported Ernst’s decision.
Ernst has faced criticism since her response to a constituent at a town meeting who raised concerns about Medicaid cuts in Trump’s policy bill, stating “we are all going to die.” Throughout her tenure, Ernst has often found it challenging to strike a balance between GOP voters identifying with President Donald Trump’s “Make America Great Again” movement and those who do not.
A decade ago, Iowa was a crucial swing state, won by Barack Obama twice and then by Donald Trump in 2016. However, the state leaned slightly towards Democrats in 2018, with Democratic candidates winning three out of four US House seats. Since then, Republicans have held sway—winning all statewide races except for the auditor post, currently held by Democratic gubernatorial candidate Rob Sand. They also won all four House seats.
Trump secured a victory in Iowa by 8 percentage points in 2020 and 13 points in 2024.
However, Iowa Democrats see their stronger performance compared to the 2024 results in special elections this year—including a win in a conservative state Senate district last week—as evidence that the political landscape could shift in 2026.
Democrats, who need a net gain of four seats to secure control of the Senate in next November’s midterm elections, are focusing on expanding the field of potentially competitive GOP-held seats.
The party’s top target is an open-seat race in North Carolina. However, Democrats also aim to be competitive in some combination of Maine, where Democratic Governor Janet Mills has expressed serious interest in running against Republican Senator Susan Collins; Ohio, where former Senator Sherrod Brown is attempting a political comeback by challenging incumbent Republican Senator Jon Husted; and Texas, where Senator John Cornyn faces a tough primary challenge from conservative Attorney General Ken Paxton—a candidate Democrats view as more favorable in the general election.
This story has been updated with additional details.