Tangier Island Faces Imminent Demise Due to Climate Change and Sea Level Rise: A Cultural Heritage on the Brink

As the ferry nears Tangier Island, situated off Virginia’s mainland coast, Captain Steven Thomas narrates a rich history of the island, where crabbing has significantly influenced its culture.

He highlights a cluster of small structures standing on stilts in the water. “These are all crab shanties,” he announces over the boat’s PA system. “They’re used for shedding softshell crabs during the summer months.”

Tangier Island, one of the last inhabited islands within the Chesapeake Bay, has been home to generations since colonial settlers arrived in the 1700s. The descendants of these original settlers, bearing surnames such as Crockett, Parks, and Thomas, still reside there today. The seclusion has fostered a unique accent, often described as a blend between “Southern” and “Elizabethan” English.

Since 1850, the island has experienced a loss of two-thirds of its original landmass due to erosion and rising sea levels. On average, the island hovers just three feet above sea level. Annually, water levels in the Bay are increasing by at least a quarter of an inch.

According to experts like Dave Schulte, a renowned climate change researcher and ecological restoration specialist who extensively studied Tangier, the island could be submerged entirely within the next 50 years. In 2015 and 2021, Schulte co-authored defining reports on the island, and previously worked for the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers.

“Our projections indicated that the island will need to be abandoned in approximately 25-30 years,” Schulte told NPR.

Climate change intensifies the erosion of the island, contributing both to higher sea levels and more destructive storms.

“Erosion has always been a challenge for all Chesapeake Bay islands, but sea level rise is exacerbating the rate at which it’s occurring,” Schulte explains. “Additionally, due to climate change, storms are becoming increasingly frequent and intense, causing more damage.”

Furthermore, the entire Chesapeake Bay region is experiencing subsidence, or sinking, according to Schulte.

Many residents still make their living on the water as their ancestors did centuries ago – through crabbing and fishing. However, Tangier’s population has plummeted significantly. The most recent census estimate lists the current population at 240, a decrease of 30% from 2022.

Rob Baechtel greeted NPR at Tangier Island’s dock for a tour in his utility task vehicle. Due to the island’s small size, residents primarily use golf carts, UTVs, bikes, and mopeds instead of cars for transportation.

Baechtel moved to Tangier with his wife 12 years ago. A former D.C. police officer, he now serves as one of the island’s only EMTs and previously held the position of fire chief.

The island boasts two churches and is adorned with crosses and Trump campaign signs. Baechtel points to a stretch of sand in the distance. “That’s our beach,” he notes. “It’s a mile-and-a-half long, but no one ever visits it. The locals don’t frequent this area.”

Across from a baseball field, students emerge from a long, white building. “That’s our school over there on the right,” Baechtel says.

Tangier Combined School had 38 students in the 2024-2025 academic year, with just one graduating senior, Lukas Thomas.

Thomas shared with NPR that he plans to continue residing on Tangier, making him somewhat of an exception among younger residents.

“There are numerous people who depart the island after they graduate,” Thomas acknowledges, “but I understand their reasons.” Thomas’s job on a tugboat may require him to be away from the island for extended periods.

“We don’t have many young children here anymore,” Baechtel notes. “Our median age exceeds 60. This presents challenges in terms of finding individuals to work on houses because everyone is over 60 or older.”

Schulte’s alarming predictions sparked international interest, drawing attention from journalists and politicians alike.

President Trump even called Tangier Mayor James Eskridge following a news story about the island on CNN. Trump reassured Eskridge that rising sea levels were not a concern, promising that the island would endure for hundreds more years. In 2024, Trump earned 88% of the vote on the island.

Although Tangier is less than 100 miles from Washington D.C., Schulte expressed disappointment that the island has not received significant aid. “Even after all this attention and the dire situation they’re facing, they’re still not getting the help they need,” he lamented.

Any help the island has received has been slow in coming, according to Schulte. A seawall was constructed on the island’s west side in 1990, and a stone jetty to protect the harbor was installed in 2020. However, both projects took decades to complete.

“They can’t keep asking for help and wait half a century for someone to save the island,” Schulte emphasized. “It doesn’t have that much time.”

In a statement, the White House declared that the Department of the Interior takes a proactive approach to supporting Tangier through the U.S. Geological Survey’s monitoring of rising sea levels and conservation efforts by the U.S. Fish & Wildlife Service aimed at preserving crabbing.

Schulte estimated that it would cost between $250 and 350 million to fully protect and restore the island. This sum would include applying protective stone along vulnerable shorelines, retrofitting plumbing and electrical infrastructure throughout the town, and raising the one-lane road system for transportation purposes.

“It’s a substantial amount of money for us,” says Eskridge, “but to the government it’s pocket change.” Eskridge, like many on this island, goes by a nickname: “Ooker.”

Eskridge serves as both mayor of the small town and a crabber. He considers himself an ambassador for the island.

“People ask why don’t you just move somewhere else?” Eskridge muses. “But it’s home. We’ve been here for hundreds of years, and we’d like to remain. And it’s achievable.”

Democratic Sen. Tim Kaine of Virginia has assisted in securing funding for the island: $800,000 in 2024 and $10 million this year.

“So, $10 million may not solve the entire problem,” Kaine notes, “but I think it’s a powerful message that the federal government is taking notice.”

He hopes the money will be used to advance some of the resilience strategies such as constructing seawalls and utilizing dredged material. This approach is currently being employed on nearby Poplar Island, Maryland – another island once teetering on the brink of disappearance. An Army Corps of Engineers project to restore this uninhabited island and protect its vulnerable wildlife is underway and expected to be completed around 2040. The estimated cost of the project is $1.4 billion.

Hilary Harp Falk, president of the nonprofit Chesapeake Bay Foundation, is collaborating with Tangier’s town government to develop an adaptation plan, which may include implementing a living shoreline of marsh grasses and oysters. A living shoreline would help combat erosion while also offering environmental benefits.

“We can explore strategies like the use of dredging materials or beneficial reuse of those materials on the island in order to protect it from climate change’s impacts,” Harp Falk explains.

Besides the marshes and ecosystems, Harp Falk stresses that homes and a way of life are being lost on Tangier Island.

“I think it’s crucial that we stand with coastal communities experiencing the worst effects of climate change,” she says. “We can learn from these places and develop ideas for the future.”

Editor’s note: Dave Schulte, the climate change researcher heavily featured in this piece, passed away last month.