U.S.-Israeli Plan Outlines Conditional End to Gaza Conflict, Including Hostage Release and Hamas Disarmament

In a significant development, US and Israeli leaders have announced a comprehensive plan aimed at bringing an end to Israel’s ongoing conflict in Gaza. The proposal, while not without its uncertainties, outlines potential steps towards peace that could reshape the future of the region. Here are five key aspects of the agreement and potential outcomes moving forward.

Under the terms of the plan, within 72 hours following consensus from all parties, Hamas would release 48 living and deceased hostages to Israel in exchange for the liberation of 250 Palestinian prisoners serving life sentences, along with the release of 1,700 Gazan residents detained since the onset of the conflict.

Following this exchange, increased food and medical aid will be delivered to Gaza, with distribution undertaken by United Nations agencies and the Red Crescent. The proposal appears to sideline the controversial Israeli- and US-backed Gaza Humanitarian Foundation.

Hamas would be required to relinquish its military arsenal, dismantle its infrastructure, and abandon control of Gaza. This transition could pave the way for a transitional body composed of qualified Palestinians and international experts, led by former British Prime Minister Tony Blair, to oversee Gaza’s reconstruction.

Over time, governance responsibilities may be transferred to the Palestinian Authority, which currently oversees parts of the West Bank, another Palestinian territory occupied by Israel, provided it enacts a series of wide-ranging reforms.

This plan represents the most widely supported proposal to end the conflict, with numerous nations, including Qatar and Egypt—countries with close ties to Hamas—endorsing the US initiative. The proposal has also garnered positive responses from world leaders such as the UK’s Prime Minister and the President of the European Commission, who have urged all parties to seize this opportunity for peace.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu presented the proposed deal to his constituents as a major victory in Israel’s military objectives: hostage release, disarmament of Hamas, and withdrawal of Israeli troops from Gaza. Within 72 hours, Israel would secure the release of the hostages.

Netanyahu emphasized that Israel would maintain a military presence within most of Gaza, albeit without a time-bound commitment for further withdrawal. The proposal’s language regarding “conditions…for a credible pathway to Palestinian self-determination and statehood” has raised concerns among Israeli officials, with Netanyahu denying any agreement towards a Palestinian state in his public statements.

Hamas faces challenges in accepting the conditions of the deal, particularly those pertaining to the immediate release of all its hostages in exchange for only partial Israeli troop withdrawal from Gaza. Hamas views itself as a freedom-fighting resistance group and has vehemently opposed disarmament.

Thus far, Hamas has yet to issue an official response, but initial reactions have been negative. Hamas official Mahmoud Mardawi stated that the proposal’s provisions lean heavily in Israel’s favor, yet emphasized that Hamas would review the plan. Hamas may draw inspiration from Hezbollah, the Iran-backed militia based in Lebanon, which signed a ceasefire agreement with Israel last November to disarm in its stronghold while holding out against broader demilitarization orders across the country.

Hamas’ primary objective is to end the conflict and ensure its survival. If the deal results in a hostage-prisoner exchange and cessation of hostilities, Hamas may be able to present it as a victory, pushing the question of Gaza’s demilitarization aside for future consideration. However, the plan does not appear to guarantee Hamas’ long-term survival: it calls for disarmament of the group and offers its leaders amnesty and safe passage out of Gaza.

Trump has threatened to support Israel’s continued conflict in Gaza if Hamas rejects the proposal. Netanyahu has taken a stronger stance, stating that Israel would escalate its military efforts if Hamas leaders accept the plan but fail to comply with its terms. The agreement faces internal challenges from Netanyahu’s far-right governing partners, who have criticized various aspects of the plan and may threaten to resign, potentially destabilizing the government.

In order to prevent such a scenario, Netanyahu has decided not to bring Trump’s plan for a vote in his cabinet, according to a source briefed by an Israeli official. An alternative possibility is that a hostage-prisoner exchange and ceasefire are achieved, with limited progress on the rest of the US vision for postwar Gaza.